Movie projector: 'Transformers' 2 likely to start smashing records tomorrow

Movie projector: 'Transformers' 2 likely to start smashing records tomorrow

 

If the second “Transformers” movie blows away its predecessor and breaks the record for a Wednesday opening, Paramount will have girls to thank.

“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” is generating huge interest among males, particularly young men, just like 2007’s first film based on Hasbro’s shape-changing robot toy line from the 1980s. That movie sold $319.2 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada, and $389 million overseas.

But "Revenge of the Fallen," which cost just under $200 million to produce, is also showing strength with a new demographic: young women. According to a person who has seen pre-release audience polling, females younger than 25 are just as interested in the movie as males older than 25. That's likely because of the growing appeal of 20-something stars Shia LaBeouf and Megan Fox.

With that extra audience group in mind, Paramount is primed for a huge opening. The current five-day-box-office record for a movie debuting on a Wednesday is "Spider-Man 2," which grossed $152.4 million in 2004. Executives who closely follow tracking say "Transformers" probably will earn roughly $175 million in its first five days. That's a huge start, albeit short of the five-day record of $203.8 million set by "The Dark Knight" last year. It's possible, albeit unlikely, that "Revenge of the Fallen" could topple that mark.

It has a better shot at beating the all-time record for a Wednesday of $44.2 million set by "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" in 2007. "Transformers" has already sold out more than 1,000 midnight shows through the websites Fandango and MovieTickets.

Paramount could certainly use the good news this week, after film group President John Lesher and production President Brad Weston were both surprisingly fired last Friday over concerns about a shortage of films on the studio's slate and the poor peformance of "Imagine That" and "Dance Flick." Paramount has been having a mixed summer, however, with "Star Trek" proving a major hit.

The only question mark this weekend is the overwhelmingly negative reaction of critics. "Revenge of the Fallen" currently has a score of 39 on Metacritic and only 29% positive reviews, according to Rotten Tomatoes. Though "Transformers" is a critic-proof movie if ever there was one, negative audience buzz could start to depress attendance as soon as this weekend.

Paramount's event picture is likely to do even bigger business overseas. "Revenge of the Fallen" opened this past weekend in Great Britain and Japan, where it earned an impressive $13.8 million and $5.8 million, respectively. Tomorrow it premieres in every major market except Italy, where it starts Friday, and India, where it opens next week.

The first "Transformers" was particularly popular in Asia. It grossed a record-breaking $51.5 million in South Korea and $37.2 million in China. The sequel is likely to do similar, if not better, business.

Its only competition in wide release this weekend will be Warner Bros.' tear-jerker "My Sister's Keeper," which starts targeting women with no interest in giant robots on Friday.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," which will debut in most major markets tomorrow, is likely to earn roughly $175 million in its first five days, studio executives say. Credit: Paramount Pictures

Splitsville for 'Jon & Kate' (but that's not the reason show's ratings will likely sink)

"Kate and I have decided to separate."

With those words, Jon Gosselin announced what anyone who follows TLC's "Jon & Kate Plus 8" already knew: That the couple began divorce proceedings on Monday.

Just a few observations about Monday's hourlong episode of the show:

Kate seemed much calmer than she has in recent weeks. In the show's May 25 season premiere, she appeared to be vibrating with anger. Not so much Monday. Jon said he would not be around as much because someone might "offer [him] a job." What, exactly, is he qualified to do? He quit his job some time ago to be a full-time dad, and right now his only marketable skill appears to be "reality TV celebrity." Then again, next year NBC will need another crop of D-listers for "I'm a Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here!" so Jon's agent (presuming he has one or gets one) should look into that.The couple has chosen to keep on doing the show. The kids will stay in the house, but the parents will rotate in and out. And where will they live when they're not at the kid compound? I guess now the Gosselins will have three homes to support -- Jon's, Kate's and the kids. So presumably this show will keep going ... and going... and going.The first part of the show was blatant product placement for the company who made the children's new custom playhouses. How disturbed were you by the fact that the children were, as James Poniewozik tweeted, "walking billboards"? I found it sigh-inducing but not particularly unexpected.I'll say this about "Jon & Kate," if the show's ratings continue to go down (of course I'm sure Monday's ratings will be sky-high again, but I don't expect that bump to last): What will and has driven people away from the show, in my opinion, is not necessarily just a dislike of the lead couple or a disinclination to watch a marriage erode. I think one of the biggest problems with "Jon & Kate" is that the show became, to an alarming degree, a vehicle for product placement and the promotion of other TV shows, such as "American Chopper." When "Jon & Kate" began, it was about a couple struggling to deal with eight kids. Now it's about a family that lives in a McMansion and has Emeril Lagasse stopping by to whip up a meal. People may be turned off by Jon or by Kate or by both of the Gosselin adults, but I think they're almost as turned off by the relentless marketing on the show. Personally I find the continual cross-promotion and product placement the most tiresome thing about "Jon & Kate," at this point. Some quotes from the show:Jon: "This is the hardest episode ever. I'm two hours late to shoot because I had reservations about doing it, because I didn't know what to say." Jon on the relentless tabloid attention: "It's a shame that our society has come to that." Jon: "I was too passive. I just let her rule the roost… Now I finally stood up on my own two feet and I'm proud of myself." Kate: "It's the next chapter -- not a chapter that's been brought on by our show, not a chapter that's been caused by our career choices at all."Jon: "I don't hate Kate but i have to do what's best for me and my kids."Kate: "The goals are different now, but I don't hate him, never have, never will." Kate: "I'm tired of smiling on the outside when I'm crying on the inside. I've been doing that for a long time."Jon: "Kate and I have decided to separate."Kate's biggest fear going forward is "the label that we failed, how that will affect our kids, how they'll be another statistic. ...I don't want to do this alone but it's required and I've got to do it." On the screen: "On Monday June 22, 2009, legal proceedings were initiated in Pennsylvania to dissolve the ten-year marriage of Jon and Kate Gosselin.

Kate Gosselin says her marriage is 'irretrievably broken'
ALLENTOWN, Pa. — Kate Gosselin says in divorce papers that her marriage to Jon is "irretrievably broken.
'Tonight Show' Sidekick Ed McMahon Dies

Ed McMahon died early Tuesday morning at the age of 86. From 1962 to 1992, he introduced Johnny Carson on The Tonight Show. Then, after the monologue, he sat next to Carson's desk and laughed at his jokes.